Metalac GM 1–1 Indjija: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Metalac GM

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Indjija

11/5/2022

Prva Liga · Round 17Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM44%

×Draw28%

Indjija28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchIndjija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Metalac GM

1.31

Indjija

0.98

Metalac GM creates 34% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 92 away

1.49

creates per match

1.09

0.86

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Indjija

1.09

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Indjija

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Indjija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

72%

Metalac GM or Indjija

72%

Draw or Indjija

56%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

20%

Indjija wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

73%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

38%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

14%

Indjija 1+ goals

62%

Indjija 2+ goals

26%

Indjija 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

61%

Indjija (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Indjija away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Indjija defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Indjija attack 1.09 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metalac GM scores more

44%

level

28%

Indjija scores more

28%

Metalac GM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff