Indjija 0–1 Metalac GM: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Indjija

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalac GM

3/23/2024

Prva Liga · Round 26Toyo Tires Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Indjija48%

×Draw28%

Metalac GM24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndjijaExpected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.89

Indjija

1.37

Metalac GM

0.89

Indjija creates 54% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 70 away

1.48

creates per match

0.86

0.91

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Indjija

1.48

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Indjija

0.91

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Indjija or draw

76%

Indjija or Metalac GM

72%

Draw or Metalac GM

52%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+

23%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals

75%

Indjija 2+ goals

40%

Indjija 3+ goals

16%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

59%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

22%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)

66%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Indjija scores more

48%

level

28%

Metalac GM scores more

24%

Indjija at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff