Metalac GM 2–0 Bezanija: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Metalac GM

FT

2 – 0

Bezanija

4/10/2019

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadion FK Metalac (Gornji Milanovac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metalac GM51%

×Draw26%

Bezanija23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchBezanija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.93

Metalac GM

1.54

Bezanija

0.93

Metalac GM creates 66% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Bezanija

1.00

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Bezanija

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Bezanija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

77%

Metalac GM or Bezanija

74%

Draw or Bezanija

49%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

27%

Bezanija wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

79%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

45%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

20%

Bezanija 1+ goals

61%

Bezanija 2+ goals

24%

Bezanija 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

69%

Bezanija (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bezanija attack 1.00 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalac GM scores more

51%

level

26%

Bezanija scores more

23%

Metalac GM at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff