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Bezanija vs Metalac GM — Prva Liga 2018

Bezanija
Bezanija
FT
1 – 1
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
10/21/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 12Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bezanija47%
×Draw27%
Metalac GM26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezanija
1.44
Metalac GM
0.99

Bezanija creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bezanija
1.61
Metalac GM
0.86

allows per match

Bezanija
1.11
Metalac GM
1.26

finishing

Bezanija+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezanija ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bezanija or draw
74%
Bezanija or Metalac GM
73%
Draw or Metalac GM
53%

Winning margin

Bezanija wins by 2+
23%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bezanija 1+ goals
76%
Bezanija 2+ goals
42%
Bezanija 3+ goals
18%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
63%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
26%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bezanija (draw refunded)
65%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezanija at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezanija attack 1.61 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Bezanija defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bezanija scores more
47%
level
27%
Metalac GM scores more
26%

Bezanija at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bezanija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bezanija vs Metalac GM

Bezanija and Metalac GM drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd).