Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metal Kharkiv vs Kremin' — Persha Liga 2019

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kremin'
Kremin'
4/26/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 6Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Metal Kharkiv60%
×Draw22%
Kremin'18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metal Kharkiv
1.85
Kremin'
0.90

Metal Kharkiv creates 106% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 78 away

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv
1.44
Kremin'
0.87

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv
0.92
Kremin'
2.26

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par
Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Kremin' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw
82%
Metal Kharkiv or Kremin'
78%
Draw or Kremin'
40%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
35%
Kremin' wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
84%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
55%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
28%
Kremin' 1+ goals
59%
Kremin' 2+ goals
23%
Kremin' 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
77%
Kremin' (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.26 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + Kremin' defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kremin' attack 0.87 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more
60%
level
22%
Kremin' scores more
18%

Metal Kharkiv at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 2–1 Kremin'

Metal Kharkiv beat Kremin' 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.