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Kremin' vs Metal Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Kremin'
Kremin'
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
3/24/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 1Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kremin'28%
×Draw27%
Metal Kharkiv45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kremin'
1.04
Metal Kharkiv
1.38

Metal Kharkiv creates 33% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kremin'
1.01
Metal Kharkiv
1.34

allows per match

Kremin'
1.42
Metal Kharkiv
1.06

finishing

Kremin'+0.00on par
Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' ↓

Metal Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kremin' or draw
55%
Kremin' or Metal Kharkiv
73%
Draw or Metal Kharkiv
72%

Winning margin

Kremin' wins by 2+
11%
Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kremin' 1+ goals
65%
Kremin' 2+ goals
28%
Kremin' 3+ goals
9%
Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
75%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
40%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kremin' (draw refunded)
39%
Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 76 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' attack 1.01 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Kremin' defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kremin' scores more
28%
level
27%
Metal Kharkiv scores more
45%

Metal Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kremin' vs Metal Kharkiv

Kremin' and Metal Kharkiv drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.