Metal Kharkiv 1–2 Bukovyna: Result & Stats

Metal Kharkiv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bukovyna

B. Porokh 80'

V. Dakhnovskyi 28', 12'

4/17/2026

Persha Liga · Round 24OSC Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Metal Kharkiv37%

×Draw27%

Bukovyna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metal KharkivExpected goals in this matchBukovyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.22

Metal Kharkiv

1.24

Bukovyna

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

1.44

creates per match

1.51

0.92

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv

1.44

Bukovyna

1.51

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv

0.92

Bukovyna

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Bukovyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw

64%

Metal Kharkiv or Bukovyna

73%

Draw or Bukovyna

63%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

16%

Bukovyna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

71%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

35%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

13%

Bukovyna 1+ goals

70%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

34%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

51%

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Bukovyna away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + Bukovyna defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bukovyna attack 1.51 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more

37%

level

27%

Bukovyna scores more

36%

Metal Kharkiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

28'

46'

52'

70'

71'

D. Shynkarenko← Y. Pidlepenets

80'

B. Porokh

81'

Y. Sherstyuk← B. Porokh

81'

V. Gakman← P. Stasyuk

81'

Y. Morgovskyi← O. Kozhushko

85'

M. Orikhovskyi← D. Vernattus

85'

I. Gryshchenko← K. Palyanychka

85'

O. Goryainov← O. Tsvirenko

90+5'

V. Dakhnovskyi

90+3'

R. Gorenko← V. Grusha

Metal

Bukovyna

30

Kanevtsev

3

Bezuglyy

4

Sakiv

7

▼

Kozhushko

8

⚽2

Dakhnovsk

12

▼

Pidlepene

13

Voytikhov

24

Busko

25

▼

Grusha

44

Vitenchuk

95

▼

Stasyuk

25

Rybak

20

▼

Vernattus

8

Digtyar

31

⚽

▼

Porokh

7

Lutsiv

38

▼

5

10

19

27

▼

Isaenko

11

▼

Tsvirenko

46'▲K. Vlaga←▼Y. Isaenko

81'▲Y. Sherstyuk←▼B. Porokh

85'▲M. Orikhovskyi←▼D. Vernattus

85'▲I. Gryshchenko←▼K. Palyanychka

85'▲O. Goryainov←▼O. Tsvirenko

Metal Kharkiv substitutes

35Pletnyov41Smatko33Sherstyuk29Abramov14Vlaga30Shapovalov98Orikhovskyi39Gryshchenko21Goryainov9Lutsiv

Manager: Grygoriy Churilov

71'▲D. Shynkarenko←▼Y. Pidlepenets

81'▲V. Gakman←▼P. Stasyuk

81'▲Y. Morgovskyi←▼O. Kozhushko

90+3'▲R. Gorenko←▼V. Grusha

Bukovyna substitutes

1Pogorilyi94Penkov14Shynkarenko15Gakman20Koltsov22Plaksa27Tyshchenko37Prokopchuk74Morgovskyi88Gorenko89Dubovik93Gamolov

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 1–2 Bukovyna

Bukovyna beat Metal Kharkiv 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 17, 2026.

Goals: V. Dakhnovskyi (12', 28'), B. Porokh (80').

The match was played at OSC Metalist in Kharkiv.

Metal Kharkiv vs Bukovyna — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Metal Kharkiv 1–2 Bukovyna