Bukovyna 2–1 Metal Kharkiv: Result & Stats

Bukovyna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Metal Kharkiv

B. Boichuk 75'

V. Koltsov 11' (pen)

Gabriel Gomes 82'

11/9/2024

Persha Liga · Round 16Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bukovyna40%

×Draw28%

Metal Kharkiv33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BukovynaExpected goals in this matchMetal Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Bukovyna

1.27

Metal Kharkiv

1.13

Bukovyna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

1.49

creates per match

1.34

0.92

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bukovyna

1.49

Metal Kharkiv

1.34

allows per match

Bukovyna

0.92

Metal Kharkiv

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Metal Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw

67%

Bukovyna or Metal Kharkiv

72%

Draw or Metal Kharkiv

60%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+

18%

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals

72%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

36%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

14%

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

68%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

31%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

55%

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.49 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Bukovyna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bukovyna scores more

40%

level

28%

Metal Kharkiv scores more

33%

Bukovyna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

O. Mizyuk

11'

V. KoltsovPenalty

42'

D. Teplyakov

45+1'

V. Koltsov

46'

A. Chidomere← D. Tepliakov

58'

D. Golub

60'

R. Bodnya

61'

D. Vernattus

63'

D. Prykhodko← K. Dihtiar

65'

A. Andreichuk← R. Bodnia

65'

V. Khameliuk← I. Tyshchenko

71'

I. Budniak← D. Honcharuk

75'

78'

82'

87'

90+8'

90+8'

90+1'

Y. Dudnyk← Y. Hlushchuk

90'

O. Horiainov← Y. Isaienko

Bukovyna

Metal

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Churilov

65'▲A. Andreichuk←▼R. Bodnia

65'▲V. Khameliuk←▼I. Tyshchenko

71'▲I. Budniak←▼D. Honcharuk

90+1'▲Y. Dudnyk←▼Y. Hlushchuk

Bukovyna substitutes

AndreichukKhameliukBudniakDudnykKilievyiAzizovPohorilyiPonomarenkoSoldatRudavskyi

Manager: A. Anishchenko

46'▲A. Chidomere←▼D. Tepliakov

63'▲D. Prykhodko←▼K. Dihtiar

90'▲O. Horiainov←▼Y. Isaienko

Metal Kharkiv substitutes

ChidomerePrykhodkoHoriainovPorokhPalianychkaOrikhovskyiTsvirenkoPletniovAbramov

Match Recap: Bukovyna vs Metal Kharkiv

Bukovyna beat Metal Kharkiv 2-1 in Persha Liga on November 9, 2024.

Goals: V. Koltsov (11' pen), B. Boichuk (75'), Gabriel Gomes (82').

The match was played at Stadion Bukovyna in Chernivtsi.

Bukovyna vs Metal Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bukovyna vs Metal Kharkiv