Mestre 2–2 Cartigliano: Result & Stats

Mestre

FT

2 – 2

Cartigliano

C. Bigoni 86', 82'

L. Mattioli 89'

A. Girardi 5'

1/5/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 20Stadio Francesco Baracca (Mestre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mestre40%

×Draw27%

Cartigliano33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MestreExpected goals in this matchCartigliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Mestre

1.35

Cartigliano

1.21

Mestre creates 12% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 49 away

1.34

creates per match

1.43

0.99

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Mestre

1.34

Cartigliano

1.43

allows per match

Mestre

0.99

Cartigliano

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par

Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Cartigliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mestre or draw

67%

Mestre or Cartigliano

73%

Draw or Cartigliano

60%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+

18%

Cartigliano wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals

74%

Mestre 2+ goals

39%

Mestre 3+ goals

15%

Cartigliano 1+ goals

70%

Cartigliano 2+ goals

34%

Cartigliano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)

54%

Cartigliano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mestre scores more

40%

level

27%

Cartigliano scores more

33%

Mestre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Girardi

82'

C. Bigoni

86'

C. Bigoni

89'

L. Mattioli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff