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Cartigliano vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mestre
Mestre
D. Dixon 8'
1/22/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartigliano41%
×Draw27%
Mestre31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.31
Mestre
1.11

Cartigliano creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 101 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
69%
Cartigliano or Mestre
73%
Draw or Mestre
59%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
19%
Mestre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
73%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
38%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
14%
Mestre 1+ goals
67%
Mestre 2+ goals
30%
Mestre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
57%
Mestre (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mestre attack 0.94 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cartigliano scores more
41%
level
27%
Mestre scores more
31%

Cartigliano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
D. Dixon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartigliano vs Mestre

Cartigliano beat Mestre 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 22, 2023.

Goals: D. Dixon (8').

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.