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Meševo vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
4/13/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo54%
×Draw23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
1.81
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.08

Meševo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 92 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
77%
Meševo or Jedinstvo Paraćin
77%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
46%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
31%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
84%
Meševo 2+ goals
54%
Meševo 3+ goals
27%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
66%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
29%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
71%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meševo scores more
54%
level
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
23%

Meševo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meševo vs Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Meševo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Meševo.