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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Meševo
Meševo
9/23/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin52%
×Draw24%
Meševo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.75
Meševo
1.10

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 59% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Meševo
1.82

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
76%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Meševo
76%
Draw or Meševo
48%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
29%
Meševo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
52%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
25%
Meševo 1+ goals
67%
Meševo 2+ goals
30%
Meševo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
69%
Meševo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Meševo attack 1.04 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
52%
level
24%
Meševo scores more
24%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Meševo

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Meševo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.