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Meševo vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
10/28/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 12Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo50%
×Draw25%
Jedinstvo Kruševac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
1.60
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.04

Meševo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
75%
Meševo or Jedinstvo Kruševac
75%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
50%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
26%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
80%
Meševo 2+ goals
47%
Meševo 3+ goals
22%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
65%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
28%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
67%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meševo scores more
50%
level
25%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
25%

Meševo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Meševo 1–0 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Meševo beat Jedinstvo Kruševac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Meševo.