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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Meševo
Meševo
5/11/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 27Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac56%
×Draw22%
Meševo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.94
Meševo
1.14

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 70% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Meševo
1.82

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
78%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Meševo
78%
Draw or Meševo
44%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
33%
Meševo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
86%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
30%
Meševo 1+ goals
68%
Meševo 2+ goals
32%
Meševo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
72%
Meševo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Meševo attack 1.04 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
56%
level
22%
Meševo scores more
22%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Kruševac 3–1 Meševo

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Meševo 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.