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Mes Soongoun vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
3/27/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun44%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal Mollasani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
1.20
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84

Mes Soongoun creates 43% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
74%
Mes Soongoun or Esteghlal Mollasani
70%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
56%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
19%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
70%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
34%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
12%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
57%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
21%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
63%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
44%
level
30%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
26%

Mes Soongoun at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Soongoun vs Esteghlal Mollasani

Mes Soongoun beat Esteghlal Mollasani 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.