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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Mes Soongoun — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
10/20/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani47%
×Draw32%
Mes Soongoun21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.14
Mes Soongoun
0.66

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 73% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Mes Soongoun
0.47

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Mes Soongoun
1.24

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Mes Soongoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
79%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Mes Soongoun
68%
Draw or Mes Soongoun
53%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
20%
Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
68%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
32%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
11%
Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
48%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
14%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
69%
Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Mes Soongoun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mes Soongoun attack 0.47 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
47%
level
32%
Mes Soongoun scores more
21%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Mes Soongoun

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Mes Soongoun 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.