Mes Soongoun 0–1 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Mes Soongoun

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chadormalu SC

10/14/2023

Azadegan League · Round 7Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mes Soongoun29%

×Draw32%

Chadormalu SC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes SoongounExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.01

Mes Soongoun

0.84

Chadormalu SC

1.01

Chadormalu SC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

1.08

creates per match

1.16

0.86

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Mes Soongoun

1.08

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Mes Soongoun

0.86

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw

62%

Mes Soongoun or Chadormalu SC

68%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

71%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+

10%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals

57%

Mes Soongoun 2+ goals

21%

Mes Soongoun 3+ goals

5%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

64%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

27%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)

43%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.84

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more

29%

level

32%

Chadormalu SC scores more

38%

Chadormalu SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff