Chadormalu SC 0–1 Mes Soongoun: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mes Soongoun

3/17/2024

Azadegan League · Round 24Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC50%

×Draw29%

Mes Soongoun20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchMes Soongoun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.69

Chadormalu SC

1.27

Mes Soongoun

0.69

Chadormalu SC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

0.47

0.90

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.29

Mes Soongoun

0.47

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Mes Soongoun

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Mes Soongoun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

80%

Chadormalu SC or Mes Soongoun

71%

Draw or Mes Soongoun

50%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

23%

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

72%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

36%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

14%

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals

50%

Mes Soongoun 2+ goals

15%

Mes Soongoun 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

71%

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Mes Soongoun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mes Soongoun attack 0.47 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

50%

level

29%

Mes Soongoun scores more

20%

Chadormalu SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff