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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
10/25/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak58%
×Draw27%
Chooka Talesh15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.43
Chooka Talesh
0.58

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 147% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
85%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Chooka Talesh
73%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
42%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
30%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
76%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
42%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
17%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
44%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
12%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
79%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
58%
level
27%
Chooka Talesh scores more
15%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Chooka Talesh

Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Chooka Talesh 2-1 in Azadegan League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium in Shahrbabak.