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Chooka Talesh vs Mes Shahr-e Babak — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
M. Hassanpour 47'
3/29/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh32%
×Draw31%
Mes Shahr-e Babak37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
0.94
Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.03

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 85 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.79

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.74

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
63%
Chooka Talesh or Mes Shahr-e Babak
69%
Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak
68%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
12%
Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
61%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
24%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
7%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
64%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
28%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
47%
Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
32%
level
31%
Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
37%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
M. Hassanpour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 0–1 Mes Shahr-e Babak

Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Chooka Talesh 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Hassanpour (47').

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.