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Mes Rafsanjan vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
AWD
0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
7/22/2026Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · FinalShohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan42%
×Draw32%
Sanat Naft26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.08
Sanat Naft
0.78

Mes Rafsanjan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Sanat Naft
0.62

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Sanat Naft
1.25

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
74%
Mes Rafsanjan or Sanat Naft
68%
Draw or Sanat Naft
58%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
17%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
66%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
29%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
10%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
54%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
18%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
62%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Sanat Naft defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sanat Naft attack 0.62 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
42%
level
32%
Sanat Naft scores more
26%

Mes Rafsanjan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mes Rafsanjan host Sanat Naft

July 22, 2026: Mes Rafsanjan take on Sanat Naft in Persian Gulf Pro League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mes Rafsanjan host Sanat Naft at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.