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Mes Rafsanjan vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
11/24/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan41%
×Draw32%
Sanat Naft27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.06
Sanat Naft
0.81

Mes Rafsanjan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Sanat Naft
0.69

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Sanat Naft
1.22

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
73%
Mes Rafsanjan or Sanat Naft
68%
Draw or Sanat Naft
59%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
16%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
65%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
29%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
9%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
56%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
19%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
60%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
41%
level
32%
Sanat Naft scores more
27%

Mes Rafsanjan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 0–2 Sanat Naft

Sanat Naft beat Mes Rafsanjan 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.