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Mes Rafsanjan vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
J. Beam 69'
12/18/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan53%
×Draw26%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.53
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.86

Mes Rafsanjan creates 78% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 82 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.90
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.95
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
79%
Mes Rafsanjan or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
74%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
47%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
27%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
78%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
45%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
20%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
58%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
21%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
71%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.90 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
53%
level
26%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
21%

Mes Rafsanjan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
J. Beam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Mes Rafsanjan beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 18, 2019.

Goals: J. Beam (69').

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.