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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Mes Rafsanjan — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
3 – 1
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
R. Magholi 90+5', 62'
M. Sarafraz 82'
N. Hooshyar 21' (OG)
7/25/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh34%
×Draw27%
Mes Rafsanjan39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17
Mes Rafsanjan
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Mes Rafsanjan
1.75

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.80
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
61%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Mes Rafsanjan
73%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
66%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
14%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
69%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
11%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
72%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
36%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
47%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.75 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
34%
level
27%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
39%

Mes Rafsanjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
N. HooshyarOwn goal
62'
R. Magholi
82'
M. Sarafraz
90+5'
R. Magholi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3–1 Mes Rafsanjan

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Mes Rafsanjan 3-1 in Azadegan League on July 25, 2020.

Goals: N. Hooshyar (21' o.g.), R. Magholi (62', 90+5'), M. Sarafraz (82').

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.