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Mes Rafsanjan vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 0
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
4/23/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium (Rafsanjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan56%
×Draw26%
Khooneh Be Khooneh18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.50
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.72

Mes Rafsanjan creates 108% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.74
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
82%
Mes Rafsanjan or Khooneh Be Khooneh
74%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
44%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
29%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
78%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
44%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
19%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
51%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
16%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
76%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.74 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
56%
level
26%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
18%

Mes Rafsanjan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Khooneh Be Khooneh

Mes Rafsanjan beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium (Rafsanjan).