Khooneh Be Khooneh 2–2 Mes Rafsanjan

Khooneh Be Khooneh

FT

2 – 2

Mes Rafsanjan

12/8/2018

Azadegan League · Round 16Shohada Sari Stadium (Sari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh39%

×Draw30%

Mes Rafsanjan31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooneh Be KhoonehExpected goals in this matchMes Rafsanjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.96

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.11

Mes Rafsanjan

0.96

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Mes Rafsanjan

1.19

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.73

Mes Rafsanjan

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw

69%

Khooneh Be Khooneh or Mes Rafsanjan

70%

Draw or Mes Rafsanjan

61%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

16%

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

67%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

30%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

10%

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

62%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

25%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

56%

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.19 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

39%

level

30%

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

31%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff