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Mes Rafsanjan vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
9/20/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan34%
×Draw33%
Gol Gohar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Gol Gohar
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Gol Gohar
0.88

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Gol Gohar
0.91

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
66%
Mes Rafsanjan or Gol Gohar
67%
Draw or Gol Gohar
66%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
12%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
60%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
23%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
6%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
60%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
23%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
50%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
34%
level
33%
Gol Gohar scores more
34%

Mes Rafsanjan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Gol Gohar

Mes Rafsanjan and Gol Gohar drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.