Gol Gohar 2–0 Mes Rafsanjan: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mes Rafsanjan

11/10/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Gol Gohar42%

×Draw29%

Mes Rafsanjan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchMes Rafsanjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.95

Gol Gohar

1.21

Mes Rafsanjan

0.95

Gol Gohar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 86 away

1.28

creates per match

0.93

0.97

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.28

Mes Rafsanjan

0.93

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.97

Mes Rafsanjan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

71%

Gol Gohar or Mes Rafsanjan

71%

Draw or Mes Rafsanjan

58%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

18%

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

70%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

34%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

12%

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

61%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

25%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

59%

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

42%

level

29%

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

29%

Gol Gohar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff