Mes Rafsanjan 2–3 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Mes Rafsanjan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Foolad FC

1/26/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan37%

×Draw32%

Foolad FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes RafsanjanExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.89

Mes Rafsanjan

0.99

Foolad FC

0.89

Mes Rafsanjan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

0.91

creates per match

0.84

0.94

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.91

Foolad FC

0.84

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.94

Foolad FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw

69%

Mes Rafsanjan or Foolad FC

68%

Draw or Foolad FC

63%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

14%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

63%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

26%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

8%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

59%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

22%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

54%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

37%

level

32%

Foolad FC scores more

31%

Mes Rafsanjan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff