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Foolad FC vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
4/19/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Foolad FC41%
×Draw31%
Mes Rafsanjan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.08
Mes Rafsanjan
0.84

Foolad FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
72%
Foolad FC or Mes Rafsanjan
69%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
59%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
17%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
66%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
29%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
10%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
57%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
21%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
59%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Foolad FC scores more
41%
level
31%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
28%

Foolad FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 0–1 Mes Rafsanjan

Mes Rafsanjan beat Foolad FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.