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Mes Kerman vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 1
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
R. Marvani 90+2'
3/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mes Kerman41%
×Draw33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.00
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.73

Mes Kerman creates 37% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 63 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
74%
Mes Kerman or Esteghlal Khuzestan
67%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
59%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
16%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
63%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
26%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
8%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
52%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
17%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
61%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.97 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
41%
level
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
26%

Mes Kerman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
R. Marvani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 0–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Mes Kerman 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 7, 2021.

Goals: R. Marvani (90+2').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.