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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
0 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
P. Miri 90+2'
7/19/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan42%
×Draw34%
Mes Kerman24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.99
Mes Kerman
0.66

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 102 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
76%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Mes Kerman
66%
Draw or Mes Kerman
58%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
16%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
63%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
26%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
8%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
48%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
14%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
64%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.99

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
42%
level
34%
Mes Kerman scores more
24%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
P. Miri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Azadegan League on July 19, 2021.

Goals: P. Miri (90+2').

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.