Mes Kerman 2–0 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Mes Kerman

FT

2 – 0

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

3/3/2019

Azadegan League · Round 26Shahid Bahonar Stadium (Kerman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mes Kerman55%

×Draw28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes KermanExpected goals in this matchArvand Khorramshahr FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.63

Mes Kerman

1.39

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.63

Mes Kerman creates 121% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

1.10

creates per match

0.73

0.53

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mes Kerman

1.10

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.73

allows per match

Mes Kerman

0.53

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw

83%

Mes Kerman or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

72%

Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

45%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

75%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

40%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

16%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

47%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

13%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

77%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mes Kerman scores more

55%

level

28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

17%

Mes Kerman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff