Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1–3 Mes Kerman

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

FT

1 – 3

Mes Kerman

10/22/2018

Azadegan League · Round 9Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC28%

×Draw39%

Mes Kerman34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arvand Khorramshahr FCExpected goals in this matchMes Kerman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

0.73

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.63

Mes Kerman

0.73

Mes Kerman creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 116 away

0.56

creates per match

0.78

0.69

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.56

Mes Kerman

0.78

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.69

Mes Kerman

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under84
Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Mes Kerman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–026%

0–119%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

74%26%1.5

39%61%2.5

16%84%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw

66%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Mes Kerman

61%

Draw or Mes Kerman

72%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

7%

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

47%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

13%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

3%

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

52%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

17%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

45%

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

28%

level

39%

Mes Kerman scores more

34%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff