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Merstham vs Erith Town — League #57 2026

Merstham
Merstham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Erith Town
Erith Town
4/11/2026League #57League #57 · Isthmian South East - 40The Hybrid Fitness Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Merstham29%
×Draw24%
Erith Town47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merstham
1.28
Erith Town
1.70

Erith Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Merstham
1.90
Erith Town
2.00

allows per match

Merstham
1.40
Erith Town
0.67

finishing

Merstham+0.00on par
Erith Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merstham ↓

Erith Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Merstham or draw
53%
Merstham or Erith Town
76%
Draw or Erith Town
71%

Winning margin

Merstham wins by 2+
12%
Erith Town wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Merstham 1+ goals
72%
Merstham 2+ goals
37%
Merstham 3+ goals
14%
Erith Town 1+ goals
82%
Erith Town 2+ goals
51%
Erith Town 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Merstham (draw refunded)
38%
Erith Town (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merstham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Erith Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merstham attack 1.90 + Erith Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Erith Town attack 2.00 + Merstham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Merstham scores more
29%
level
24%
Erith Town scores more
47%

Erith Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Erith Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merstham vs Erith Town

Erith Town beat Merstham 2-1 in League #57 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at The Hybrid Fitness Stadium in Merstham, Surrey.