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Erith Town vs Merstham — League #57 2026

Erith Town
Erith Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Merstham
Merstham
4/19/2025League #57League #57 · Isthmian South East - 40Bayliss Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Erith Town32%
×Draw23%
Merstham45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erith Town
1.50
Merstham
1.83

Merstham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Erith Town
1.33
Merstham
1.33

allows per match

Erith Town
2.33
Merstham
1.67

finishing

Erith Town+0.00on par
Merstham+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erith Town ↓

Merstham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Erith Town or draw
55%
Erith Town or Merstham
77%
Draw or Merstham
68%

Winning margin

Erith Town wins by 2+
15%
Merstham wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Erith Town 1+ goals
78%
Erith Town 2+ goals
44%
Erith Town 3+ goals
19%
Merstham 1+ goals
84%
Merstham 2+ goals
54%
Merstham 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Erith Town (draw refunded)
41%
Merstham (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erith Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Merstham away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erith Town attack 1.33 + Merstham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Merstham attack 1.33 + Erith Town defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erith Town scores more
32%
level
23%
Merstham scores more
45%

Merstham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Merstham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #57: Erith Town 0–3 Merstham

Merstham beat Erith Town 3-0 in League #57 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Bayliss Avenue in London.