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Merreikh Nyala vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2025

Merreikh Nyala
Merreikh Nyala
FT
1 – 2
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
2/19/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merreikh Nyala27%
×Draw29%
Haidob En Nahud44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh Nyala
0.90
Haidob En Nahud
1.25

Haidob En Nahud creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Merreikh Nyala
1.00
Haidob En Nahud
1.00

allows per match

Merreikh Nyala
1.50
Haidob En Nahud
0.80

finishing

Merreikh Nyala+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Nyala ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Merreikh Nyala or draw
56%
Merreikh Nyala or Haidob En Nahud
71%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
73%

Winning margin

Merreikh Nyala wins by 2+
9%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Merreikh Nyala 1+ goals
59%
Merreikh Nyala 2+ goals
23%
Merreikh Nyala 3+ goals
6%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
71%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
36%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Nyala (draw refunded)
38%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Nyala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Nyala attack 1.00 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.00 + Merreikh Nyala defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merreikh Nyala scores more
27%
level
29%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
44%

Haidob En Nahud at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh Nyala vs Haidob En Nahud

Haidob En Nahud beat Merreikh Nyala 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.