Haidob En Nahud 0–0 Merreikh Nyala: Result & Stats

Haidob En Nahud

FT

0 – 0

Merreikh Nyala

1/28/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 5Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haidob En Nahud43%

×Draw28%

Merreikh Nyala29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haidob En NahudExpected goals in this matchMerreikh Nyala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.01

Haidob En Nahud

1.31

Merreikh Nyala

1.01

Haidob En Nahud creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.30

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud

1.30

Merreikh Nyala

0.83

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud

1.20

Merreikh Nyala

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Merreikh Nyala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Merreikh Nyala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw

71%

Haidob En Nahud or Merreikh Nyala

72%

Draw or Merreikh Nyala

57%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+

20%

Merreikh Nyala wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals

73%

Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals

38%

Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals

14%

Merreikh Nyala 1+ goals

64%

Merreikh Nyala 2+ goals

27%

Merreikh Nyala 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)

60%

Merreikh Nyala (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Merreikh Nyala away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.30 + Merreikh Nyala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Merreikh Nyala attack 0.83 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more

43%

level

28%

Merreikh Nyala scores more

29%

Haidob En Nahud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff