Merreikh Nyala 1–0 Al Rabta Kosti: Result & Stats

Merreikh Nyala

FT

1 – 0

Al Rabta Kosti

5/7/2017

Sudani Premier League · Round 16Nyala Stadium (Nyala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Merreikh Nyala37%

×Draw33%

Al Rabta Kosti30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merreikh NyalaExpected goals in this matchAl Rabta Kosti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.82

Merreikh Nyala

0.95

Al Rabta Kosti

0.82

Merreikh Nyala creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

0.83

creates per match

0.65

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Merreikh Nyala

0.83

Al Rabta Kosti

0.65

allows per match

Merreikh Nyala

1.00

Al Rabta Kosti

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merreikh Nyala+0.00on par

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Nyala ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Merreikh Nyala or draw

70%

Merreikh Nyala or Al Rabta Kosti

67%

Draw or Al Rabta Kosti

63%

Winning margin

Merreikh Nyala wins by 2+

14%

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Merreikh Nyala 1+ goals

61%

Merreikh Nyala 2+ goals

25%

Merreikh Nyala 3+ goals

7%

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

56%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

20%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Nyala (draw refunded)

55%

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Nyala at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Nyala attack 0.83 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.65 + Merreikh Nyala defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Merreikh Nyala scores more

37%

level

33%

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

30%

Merreikh Nyala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Merreikh Nyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff