Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Rabta Kosti vs Merreikh Nyala — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Merreikh Nyala
Merreikh Nyala
1/23/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti44%
×Draw30%
Merreikh Nyala26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
1.16
Merreikh Nyala
0.81

Al Rabta Kosti creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.93
Merreikh Nyala
0.75

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.87
Merreikh Nyala
1.38

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Merreikh Nyala+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Merreikh Nyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
74%
Al Rabta Kosti or Merreikh Nyala
70%
Draw or Merreikh Nyala
56%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
19%
Merreikh Nyala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
69%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
32%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
11%
Merreikh Nyala 1+ goals
56%
Merreikh Nyala 2+ goals
19%
Merreikh Nyala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
63%
Merreikh Nyala (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Merreikh Nyala away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Merreikh Nyala defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Merreikh Nyala attack 0.75 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
44%
level
30%
Merreikh Nyala scores more
26%

Al Rabta Kosti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Rabta Kosti vs Merreikh Nyala

Al Rabta Kosti and Merreikh Nyala drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 23, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.