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Merreikh Kosti vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Merreikh Kosti
Merreikh Kosti
FT
0 – 2
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
1/29/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Merreikh Kosti27%
×Draw29%
Al Rabta Kosti44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh Kosti
0.90
Al Rabta Kosti
1.24

Al Rabta Kosti creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Merreikh Kosti
0.71
Al Rabta Kosti
0.62

allows per match

Merreikh Kosti
1.86
Al Rabta Kosti
1.08

finishing

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Kosti ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Merreikh Kosti or draw
56%
Merreikh Kosti or Al Rabta Kosti
71%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
73%

Winning margin

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+
9%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals
59%
Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals
23%
Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals
6%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
71%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
35%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)
38%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Kosti at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.71 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.62 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merreikh Kosti scores more
27%
level
29%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
44%

Al Rabta Kosti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Merreikh Kosti 0–2 Al Rabta Kosti

Al Rabta Kosti beat Merreikh Kosti 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 29, 2026.