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Al Rabta Kosti vs Merreikh Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
3 – 2
Merreikh Kosti
Merreikh Kosti
4/8/2017Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Kosti Stadium (Kosti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti44%
×Draw28%
Merreikh Kosti27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
1.28
Merreikh Kosti
0.94

Al Rabta Kosti creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
1.06
Merreikh Kosti
0.88

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
1.00
Merreikh Kosti
1.50

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Merreikh Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
73%
Al Rabta Kosti or Merreikh Kosti
72%
Draw or Merreikh Kosti
56%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
20%
Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
72%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
37%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
14%
Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals
61%
Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals
24%
Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
62%
Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Merreikh Kosti away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 1.06 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.88 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
44%
level
28%
Merreikh Kosti scores more
27%

Al Rabta Kosti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Rabta Kosti vs Merreikh Kosti

Al Rabta Kosti beat Merreikh Kosti 3-2 in Sudani Premier League on April 8, 2017.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium (Kosti).