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Merreikh Kosti vs Al Hilal Manaqil — Sudani Premier League 2025

Merreikh Kosti
Merreikh Kosti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Hilal Manaqil
1/11/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Merreikh Kosti19%
×Draw30%
Al Hilal Manaqil51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh Kosti
0.61
Al Hilal Manaqil
1.22

Al Hilal Manaqil creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Merreikh Kosti
0.56
Al Hilal Manaqil
1.00

allows per match

Merreikh Kosti
1.44
Al Hilal Manaqil
0.67

finishing

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par
Al Hilal Manaqil+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Kosti ↓

Al Hilal Manaqil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–120%
0–212%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Merreikh Kosti or draw
49%
Merreikh Kosti or Al Hilal Manaqil
70%
Draw or Al Hilal Manaqil
81%

Winning margin

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+
5%
Al Hilal Manaqil wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals
46%
Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals
13%
Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals
2%
Al Hilal Manaqil 1+ goals
70%
Al Hilal Manaqil 2+ goals
34%
Al Hilal Manaqil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)
27%
Al Hilal Manaqil (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Kosti at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Al Hilal Manaqil away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.56 + Al Hilal Manaqil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Al Hilal Manaqil attack 1.00 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Merreikh Kosti scores more
19%
level
30%
Al Hilal Manaqil scores more
51%

Al Hilal Manaqil at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hilal Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Merreikh Kosti 0–2 Al Hilal Manaqil

Al Hilal Manaqil beat Merreikh Kosti 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 11, 2026.