Al Hilal Manaqil 0–0 Merreikh Kosti: Result & Stats

Al Hilal Manaqil

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Merreikh Kosti

2/2/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Manaqil47%

×Draw29%

Merreikh Kosti24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal ManaqilExpected goals in this matchMerreikh Kosti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.81

Al Hilal Manaqil

1.25

Merreikh Kosti

0.81

Al Hilal Manaqil creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

0.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Al Hilal Manaqil

1.00

Merreikh Kosti

0.88

allows per match

Al Hilal Manaqil

0.75

Merreikh Kosti

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Manaqil+0.00on par

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Manaqil ↓

Merreikh Kosti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Manaqil or draw

76%

Al Hilal Manaqil or Merreikh Kosti

71%

Draw or Merreikh Kosti

53%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Manaqil wins by 2+

21%

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Hilal Manaqil 1+ goals

71%

Al Hilal Manaqil 2+ goals

36%

Al Hilal Manaqil 3+ goals

13%

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals

56%

Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals

19%

Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Manaqil (draw refunded)

66%

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Manaqil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Merreikh Kosti away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Manaqil attack 1.00 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.88 + Al Hilal Manaqil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Hilal Manaqil scores more

47%

level

29%

Merreikh Kosti scores more

24%

Al Hilal Manaqil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Hilal Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff