Merreikh El-Fasher 1–2 Alamal Atbara

Merreikh El-Fasher

FT

1 – 2

Alamal Atbara

2/2/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 7Family Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher42%

×Draw29%

Alamal Atbara29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merreikh El-FasherExpected goals in this matchAlamal Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.19

Alamal Atbara

0.94

Merreikh El-Fasher creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 86 away

1.14

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.14

Alamal Atbara

0.90

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.97

Alamal Atbara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Alamal Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw

71%

Merreikh El-Fasher or Alamal Atbara

71%

Draw or Alamal Atbara

58%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+

18%

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals

70%

Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals

33%

Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals

12%

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

61%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

24%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)

59%

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more

42%

level

29%

Alamal Atbara scores more

29%

Merreikh El-Fasher at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merreikh El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff