Alamal Atbara 1–1 Merreikh El-Fasher

Alamal Atbara

FT

1 – 1

Merreikh El-Fasher

7/7/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 22Altahrir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Alamal Atbara44%

×Draw31%

Merreikh El-Fasher25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alamal AtbaraExpected goals in this matchMerreikh El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.77

Alamal Atbara

1.13

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.77

Alamal Atbara creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 48 away

1.08

creates per match

0.67

0.87

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Alamal Atbara

1.08

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.67

allows per match

Alamal Atbara

0.87

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Merreikh El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw

75%

Alamal Atbara or Merreikh El-Fasher

69%

Draw or Merreikh El-Fasher

56%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

19%

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

68%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

31%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

11%

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals

54%

Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals

18%

Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

64%

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Merreikh El-Fasher away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 0.67 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more

44%

level

31%

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more

25%

Alamal Atbara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff