Mérida AD 1–2 Malaga: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Malaga

12/10/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD34%

×Draw27%

Malaga39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.27

Mérida AD

1.16

Malaga

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

1.42

1.11

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.47

Malaga

1.42

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Malaga

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

61%

Mérida AD or Malaga

73%

Draw or Malaga

66%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

14%

Malaga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

69%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

32%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

11%

Malaga 1+ goals

72%

Malaga 2+ goals

36%

Malaga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

46%

Malaga (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Malaga away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + Malaga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Malaga attack 1.42 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mérida AD scores more

34%

level

27%

Malaga scores more

39%

Malaga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff