Malaga 1–1 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mérida AD

5/5/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga53%

×Draw28%

Mérida AD19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.67

Malaga

1.35

Mérida AD

0.67

Malaga creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.87

0.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Malaga

1.26

Mérida AD

0.87

allows per match

Malaga

0.47

Mérida AD

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

81%

Malaga or Mérida AD

72%

Draw or Mérida AD

47%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

26%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

74%

Malaga 2+ goals

39%

Malaga 3+ goals

15%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

49%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

15%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

74%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malaga scores more

53%

level

28%

Mérida AD scores more

19%

Malaga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff