Mérida AD 1–0 Granada II: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Granada II

1/14/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD55%

×Draw25%

Granada II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchGranada II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.87

Mérida AD

1.63

Granada II

0.87

Mérida AD creates 87% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

0.63

1.11

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.47

Granada II

0.63

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Granada II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Granada II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Granada II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

80%

Mérida AD or Granada II

75%

Draw or Granada II

45%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

30%

Granada II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

80%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

48%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

22%

Granada II 1+ goals

58%

Granada II 2+ goals

22%

Granada II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

73%

Granada II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Granada II away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + Granada II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Granada II attack 0.63 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mérida AD scores more

55%

level

25%

Granada II scores more

20%

Mérida AD at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff