Granada II 0–2 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

Granada II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mérida AD

4/7/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Granada II40%

×Draw29%

Mérida AD31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada IIExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.01

Granada II

1.20

Mérida AD

1.01

Granada II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.95

creates per match

0.87

1.16

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Granada II

0.95

Mérida AD

0.87

allows per match

Granada II

1.16

Mérida AD

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada II+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada II ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Granada II or draw

69%

Granada II or Mérida AD

71%

Draw or Mérida AD

60%

Winning margin

Granada II wins by 2+

17%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Granada II 1+ goals

70%

Granada II 2+ goals

34%

Granada II 3+ goals

12%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

64%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

27%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Granada II (draw refunded)

57%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada II at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada II attack 0.95 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Granada II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granada II scores more

40%

level

29%

Mérida AD scores more

31%

Granada II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granada II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff